7/30/25 MLB FREE PICK

TB-NYY OVER 8.5  

THE YANKEES GOT IT DONE YESTERDAY. FRIED GOT IT DONE - 2 ER, 9 K. TONIGHT, IT’S WILL WARREN WHO IS 6-5 WITH A 4.82 ERA. HE’S MUCH BETTER AT HOME - 5-3, 3.02 ERA, .211 OBA. HIS STRIKEOUT NUMBERS ARE OUTSTANDING. 27% STRIKEOUT RATE, 10.7 K/9. HIS PROBLEM IS THAT HE WALKS TOO MANY - 3 IN EACH OF LAST 3 STARTS - AND IF HE DOESN’T STRIKE YOU OUT, HE GIVES UP SOME HARD CONTACT - HARD HIT RATE 44.4 PERCENT. COMBINE THAT WITH LITTELL AND THE YANKEES BULLPEN AS OF LATE AND YOU HAVE A RECIPE FOR THE OVER. LITTELL IS 8-8, 3.72 ERA. IN JULY, 4 STARTS, 4.18 ERA. IN HIS LAST START, HE GAVE UP 5 ER, 2 HOMERS AND LOST TO THE REDS. LAST YEAR, LITTELL PITCHED AGAINST THE YANKEES IN MAY - 5.2 IP, 2 ER. HE CAME BACK LAST JULY AT YANKEES STADIUM AND PITCHED 5.2 IP AND GAVE UP 5 ER. HE PITCHED AGAINST NY THIS MAY AND WENT 7 INNINGS ALLOWING JUST 2 ER IN A 3-2 RAYS WIN. WITH HIS CURRENT FORM, I THINK THE YANKEES GET TO HIM. YANKEES TEAM TOTAL IS 3.5 AT -185 ODDS. THEY’VE HIT THAT IN 8 OF THE LAST 10 AND 65 PERCENT OF GAMES THIS SEASON. THE RAYS ARE JUST 1-5 IN THEIR LAST 6, 1-8 LAST 9 ON THE ROAD.

J.A. CAVALIER MLB FREE PICK

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7/29/25 MLB FREE PICK

YANKEES (F5) -0.5 ✅ 

THIS IS A BOUNCE-BACK SPOT FOR THE YANKEES BEHIND FRIED WHO HAS A 6.52 ERA IN JULY. HE’S GIVEN UP 3, 4, 4, AND 3 ER IN HIS 4 JULY STARTS, BUT HE’S STILL THE GUY WHO HAS ALLOWED 3 ER OR FEWER IN 18 OF HIS 21 STARTS THIS SEASON. THE YANKEES HAVE WON 14 OF HIS 21 STARTS AND JUST ONE THIS MONTH. FRIED HAS EXCELLENT NUMBERS AGAINST TAMPA BAY - .109 OPPONENT BA, .109 SLG%. HE ALSO PITCHES BETTER AT HOME WHERE HIS ERA IS 2.24. THE RAYS COUNTER WITH BOYLE WHO IS 1-0 WITH A 1.42 ERA. HE HAS GREAT STRIKEOUT STUFF - 25.7% K RATE AND A BARREL RATE OF JUST 4.4 PERCENT. BOYLE HAS ONLY STARTED ONE GAME. HE WENT 5 INNINGS AND ALLOWED NO ER IN A WIN OVER ATLANTA. THESE TWO PITCHERS SHOULD LIMIT RUNS AND KEEP THIS TOTAL UNDER. THE RAYS HAVE SEEN THE UNDER CASH IN 5 OF THEIR LAST 6 GAMES AND IN EACH OF THEIR LAST 6 GAMES ON THE ROAD. IN THIS SERIES, 4 OF THE LAST 5 HAVE CASHED ON THE UNDER.

J.A. CAVALIER MLB FREE PICK

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7/28/25 MLB FREE PICK

CEASE OVER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS ✅

CEASE ISN’T HAVING A YEAR LIKE LAST YEAR AND HIS 4.59 ERA IS CONCERNING. HOWEVER, IF THERE IS ONE THING HE DOES WELL, IT’S STRIKE OUT OPPOSING HITTERS. HE IS 7TH IN MLB WITH 144 Ks. HE AVERAGES 6.86 PER START THIS YEAR AND WHILE HE DIDN’T GO OVER THIS NUMBER IN HIS LAST START AGAINST MIAMI, HE DID GO OVER 6.5 IN HIS 6 OF HIS PREVIOUS 8 STARTS. CEASE OWNS SOME PRETTY GOOD NUMBERS AGAINST CURRENT METS HITTERS. PETE ALONSO IS 1-FOR-8 WITH 4 Ks, FOR EXAMPLE. CEASE PITCHED AGAINST THE METS IN AUGUST LAST YEAR AND STRUCK OUT 7. HE DOES PITCH BETTER AT HOME WHERE HIS ERA DROPS BELOW 4.00 TO 3.48 AND HE HAS 65 STRIKEOUTS IN 51.2 INNINGS (AT PETCO PARK).

J.A. CAVALIER MLB FREE PICK

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7/27/25 SUNDAY NIGHT BASEBALL
NYM-SF UNDER 8.5 ✅
KODAI SENGA STARTS FOR THE METS AND HE’S BEEN GOOD ALL SEASON DESPITE HIS LAST START. SENGA IS 7-3 WITH A 1.79 ERA BUT HE DID GIVE UP 4 ER IN 3 INNINGS IN HIS LAST START. THE METS RALLIED AND WON THAT GAME AND THEY’VE WON EACH OF HIS LAST 6 STARTS AND BOTH SINCE HE RETURNED FROM HIS INJURY. SENGA SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAME A WEAK SAN FRANCISCO LINEUP. ON THE OTHER END, THE GIANTS WILL GO WITH A BULLPEN GAME AND START MATT GAGE. HE HASN’T ALLOWED AN ER YET THIS SEASON. THE GIANTS RANK NO. 2 IN BASEBALL WITH A 3.18 BULLPEN ERA. THE METS HAVE WON 6 STRAIGHT BUT OVER THEIR LAST 10 GAMES, THE UNDER IS 6-2-1.

J.A. CAVALIER MLB FREE PICK

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